Open
/Decision/closes 29 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 21:30 UTC

the German side will veto the EU budget if the EUR70 billion loan to Ukraine is not supported.

87%probability

as of 15 Nov 2026, 21:30 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

the German side will veto the EU budget if the EUR70 billion loan to Ukraine is not supported.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 87% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 87%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1d549-a970-7db8-9637-f8af481924a2

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