--- title: "Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1e077-ec88-7e6e-a66e-0566a954b3d1" meta: "og:description": "Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** /Event/closes 17 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 18:28 UTC # **Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?** **72%**probability as of 15 Nov 2026, 18:28 UTC ·no change [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1e077-ec88-7e6e-a66e-0566a954b3d1) **Resolves YES if** Yes if the OIF heads of state and government, meeting in closed session at the 20th Francophonie Summit in Phnom Penh on 16 November 2026 (result announced at the closing session), select Rwanda's incumbent Louise Mushikiwabo as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term — whether by consensus or by simple-majority vote of the 53 full members. No if any other candidate (Dacian Ciolos, Coumba Ba) is selected, or if the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026. **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 72% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 15 Nov 2026, 18:28 UTC**72%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 17 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Dacian Ciolos be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1e078-0ac9-75e7-9edc-64cd9431771d) Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select former Romanian prime minister Dacian Ciolos as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Coumba Ba is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.**20%** probability - closes 17 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Coumba Ba be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1e078-25b6-7490-83be-3b8d3c45f85f) Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select Mauritania's Coumba Ba as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Ciolos is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.**8%** probability ## **Target** Event — ## **Discussion** ## **Related forecasts** Same kind only, ranked by embedding similarity to this record. 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