Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?
as of 15 Nov 2026, 18:28 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the OIF heads of state and government, meeting in closed session at the 20th Francophonie Summit in Phnom Penh on 16 November 2026 (result announced at the closing session), select Rwanda's incumbent Louise Mushikiwabo as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term — whether by consensus or by simple-majority vote of the 53 full members. No if any other candidate (Dacian Ciolos, Coumba Ba) is selected, or if the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 72% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 72%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 17 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Dacian Ciolos be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?
Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select former Romanian prime minister Dacian Ciolos as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Coumba Ba is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.
20%probability - closes 17 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Coumba Ba be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?
Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select Mauritania's Coumba Ba as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Ciolos is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.
8%probability
- closes 17 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Dacian Ciolos be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?
Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select former Romanian prime minister Dacian Ciolos as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Coumba Ba is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.
20%probability - closes 17 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Coumba Ba be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?
Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select Mauritania's Coumba Ba as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Ciolos is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.
8%probability
Target
Event
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Discussion
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