Open
/Decision/closes 12 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 08:29 UTC

The EU will oppose talks on a new European security architecture until a truce is signed in Ukraine.

91%probability

as of 15 Nov 2026, 08:29 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

The EU will oppose talks on a new European security architecture until a truce is signed in Ukraine.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1cfb5-f49e-77c4-9b66-213aa396c240

Open decision

Discussion

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