Will the RBA raise the cash rate above 4.85% at its 8 December 2026 meeting?
15%probability
as of 15 Nov 2026, 08:26 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board raises the cash rate target above 4.85% at its 7-8 December 2026 meeting (announcement 2:30pm AEDT, 8 December 2026). No if the cash rate is left at 4.85% or cut.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 15% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 15%—
Probability updated.
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