---
title: "Europe will not conduct negotiations with Russia about security in Europe until a ceasefire and peace are established in Ukraine. — DecisionGateway"
description: "Europe will not conduct negotiations with Russia about security in Europe until a ceasefire and peace are established in Ukraine. Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1de1c-f65b-7f29-8b02-c065b1c1f79e"
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**Open**

/ [Decision](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1cf79-cfc6-76cb-900f-4cdd35491627)/closes 12 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC

# **Europe will not conduct negotiations with Russia about security in Europe until a ceasefire and peace are established in Ukraine.**

**91%**probability

as of 15 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC ·no change

[**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1cf79-cfc6-76cb-900f-4cdd35491627) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1de1c-f65b-7f29-8b02-c065b1c1f79e)

**Resolves YES if**

Europe will not conduct negotiations with Russia about security in Europe until a ceasefire and peace are established in Ukraine.

**Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track)

## **Probability history**

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

## **What changed**

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

1. 15 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC**91%**—

   Probability updated.

## **Branches**

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

## **Target**

Decision

01a1cf79-cfc6-76cb-900f-4cdd35491627

[**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1cf79-cfc6-76cb-900f-4cdd35491627)

## **Discussion**

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