Open
/Decision/closes 4 Dec 2026 15 Nov 2026, 06:31 UTC

Will Jensen Huang sit for the closed-door transcribed interview with three House committees on 1 December 2026?

70%probability

as of 15 Nov 2026, 06:31 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if a dated report, committee press release or transcript shows former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sat for the closed-door, transcribed interview requested by the House Foreign Affairs, Select Committee on the CCP and Intelligence committees on or about 1 December 2026 (any date on or before 4 December 2026 counts). NO if the interview does not take place by 4 December 2026, is cancelled, or Huang declines/defies the request and only a subpoena is issued.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 70% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 70%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1dc2c-d232-72b0-a019-f138a4bbce9c

Open decision

Discussion

0/2000

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