Open
/Decision/closes 21 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC

Will flynas operate its first scheduled direct Damascus–Madinah passenger flight on 19 November 2026, as announced by Syria's civil aviation authority?

88%probability

as of 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if flynas operates its first scheduled non-stop commercial passenger flight between Damascus and Madinah (either direction) on 19 November 2026, as reported by flynas, Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation and Air Transport, Damascus/Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz airport sources, or flight-tracking/OAG schedule data. NO if no such flight operates on 19 November 2026 (launch postponed, cancelled, or operated only on a later date).

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 88% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 88%—

    Probability updated.

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01a1dd3c-4fa1-792e-b5e2-411b539626cf

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