--- title: "Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dd6e-6a95-7ef0-b0ad-d474b625e268" meta: "og:description": "Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** / [Decision](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79)/closes 25 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC # **Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?** **15%**probability as of 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC ·no change [**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1dd6e-6a95-7ef0-b0ad-d474b625e268) **Resolves YES if** YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026. Branch of [Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election?](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dd6e-4a46-7a95-ab2b-2ee958b04343)(Open) **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 15% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC**15%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - this page closes 25 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dd6e-6a95-7ef0-b0ad-d474b625e268) YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.**15%** probability ## **Target** Decision 01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79 [**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79) ## **Discussion** ## **Related forecasts** Same kind only, ranked by embedding similarity to this record. [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,500+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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