--- title: "Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dd6e-4a46-7a95-ab2b-2ee958b04343" meta: "og:description": "Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** / [Decision](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79)/closes 25 Nov 2026 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC # **Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election?** **85%**probability as of 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC ·no change [**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1dd6e-4a46-7a95-ab2b-2ee958b04343) **Resolves YES if** YES if the Consejo de Ministros approves the real decreto fixing the salario mínimo interprofesional for 2027 at 1,286 euros/month (5.3%) at a meeting held on or before 24 November 2026, as reported by the Moncloa press conference, the MITES ministry, or the BOE. NO if no such approval has occurred by 24 November 2026 (deferred to the caretaker government or the incoming government after the 29 November election). **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 85% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC**85%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 25 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dd6e-6a95-7ef0-b0ad-d474b625e268) YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.**15%** probability ## **Target** Decision 01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79 [**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79) ## **Discussion** ## **Related forecasts** Same kind only, ranked by embedding similarity to this record. [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 1 branch ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,500+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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