--- title: "Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dcf5-5df7-7e50-b739-66bff2069710" meta: "og:description": "Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** / [Event](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1db9e-7cde-7608-bd9a-fefa7ecad97e)/closes 10 Dec 2026 15 Nov 2026, 02:07 UTC # **Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?** **10%**probability as of 15 Nov 2026, 02:07 UTC ·no change [**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1db9e-7cde-7608-bd9a-fefa7ecad97e) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1dcf5-5df7-7e50-b739-66bff2069710) **Resolves YES if** YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change. Branch of [Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting (decision announced 9 December 2026)?](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dcf5-377f-7723-92d3-767d5ab34df2)(Open) **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 10% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 15 Nov 2026, 02:07 UTC**10%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dcf5-5df7-7e50-b739-66bff2069710) YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change.**10%** probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will the FOMC leave the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dcf5-5e08-7c9c-95c1-00552359b1ff) YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement keeps the target range at 3.75–4.00%. NO if the range is changed in either direction.**14%** probability ## **Target** Event 01a1db9e-7cde-7608-bd9a-fefa7ecad97e [**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1db9e-7cde-7608-bd9a-fefa7ecad97e) ## **Discussion** ## **Related forecasts** Same kind only, ranked by embedding similarity to this record. [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,500+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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