--- title: "Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dc8b-b97f-778e-8701-f09f4b01fe7e" meta: "og:description": "Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** / [Event](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1dc76-bd33-70e4-89ff-17bcf0bfdbd2)/closes 5 Dec 2026 15 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC # **Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026?** **55%**probability as of 15 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC ·no change [**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1dc76-bd33-70e4-89ff-17bcf0bfdbd2) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1dc8b-b97f-778e-8701-f09f4b01fe7e) **Resolves YES if** YES if a dated report from either side's officials (Umerov/Medinsky/Zelensky/Kremlin) or major international media confirms that the agreed exchange was physically carried out on or before 2026-12-05 with at least 1,000 prisoners returned to each side. A further announcement of intent, a finalized list, or a swap of a few hundred people does not count. Silence does not resolve. **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 55% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 15 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC**55%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 5 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will an exchange be carried out on or before 5 December 2026 but at a smaller scale — fewer than 1,000 prisoners returned to each side?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1dc8b-f05e-715c-8312-5dd3a6206560) YES if a dated official or major-media report confirms a Russia–Ukraine prisoner exchange physically took place on or before 2026-12-05 but with fewer than 1,000 returnees on at least one side (e.g. a few hundred, or the routine 100–300 pattern).**15%** probability ## **Target** Event 01a1dc76-bd33-70e4-89ff-17bcf0bfdbd2 [**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1dc76-bd33-70e4-89ff-17bcf0bfdbd2) ## **Discussion** ## **Related forecasts** Same kind only, ranked by embedding similarity to this record. 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