Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026?
as of 15 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if a dated report from either side's officials (Umerov/Medinsky/Zelensky/Kremlin) or major international media confirms that the agreed exchange was physically carried out on or before 2026-12-05 with at least 1,000 prisoners returned to each side. A further announcement of intent, a finalized list, or a swap of a few hundred people does not count. Silence does not resolve.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 55% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 55%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 5 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill an exchange be carried out on or before 5 December 2026 but at a smaller scale — fewer than 1,000 prisoners returned to each side?
YES if a dated official or major-media report confirms a Russia–Ukraine prisoner exchange physically took place on or before 2026-12-05 but with fewer than 1,000 returnees on at least one side (e.g. a few hundred, or the routine 100–300 pattern).
15%probability
- closes 5 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill an exchange be carried out on or before 5 December 2026 but at a smaller scale — fewer than 1,000 prisoners returned to each side?
YES if a dated official or major-media report confirms a Russia–Ukraine prisoner exchange physically took place on or before 2026-12-05 but with fewer than 1,000 returnees on at least one side (e.g. a few hundred, or the routine 100–300 pattern).
15%probability
Target
Discussion
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