Will the ICJ's judgment in The Gambia v. Myanmar, to be delivered on 19 November 2026, find Myanmar responsible for committing genocide against the Rohingya?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the ICJ, in its merits judgment in Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (The Gambia v. Myanmar: 11 States intervening), holds that Myanmar is responsible for committing genocide against the Rohingya in whole or in part — i.e. the Court finds the acts of the 2016–2017 clearance operations were committed with the requisite dolus specialis (intent to destroy the group as such) and attributable to the Myanmar state. A finding limited to failure to prevent, failure to punish, conspiracy, or non-compliance with the 2020 provisional measures order does NOT count as YES. Resolution source: the Court's own judgment/reading and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 35% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 35%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the ICJ instead find Myanmar responsible only for failing to prevent and/or punish genocide (or conspiracy), without holding it responsible for committing genocide?
YES if the 19 November 2026 judgment holds that Myanmar breached the Genocide Convention by failing to prevent genocide and/or failing to punish persons who committed genocide (and/or by conspiring to commit genocide), but does NOT hold Myanmar responsible for committing genocide itself. This is the Bosnia v. Serbia (2007) template: genocidal acts established, but commission not attributed / intent to destroy not established against the state. Resolution source: the Court's judgment and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.
45%probability - closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the ICJ reject The Gambia's genocide claims against Myanmar outright, finding no breach of the Genocide Convention?
YES if the 19 November 2026 judgment rejects The Gambia's claims — i.e. the Court finds that genocidal intent is not the only reasonable inference from the 2016–2017 conduct (following Croatia v. Serbia, 2015), so Myanmar is not held responsible for committing, conspiring to commit, failing to prevent or failing to punish genocide. A separate finding that Myanmar failed to comply with the January 2020 provisional measures order does not by itself make this branch NO. Resolution source: the Court's judgment and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.
20%probability
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the ICJ instead find Myanmar responsible only for failing to prevent and/or punish genocide (or conspiracy), without holding it responsible for committing genocide?
YES if the 19 November 2026 judgment holds that Myanmar breached the Genocide Convention by failing to prevent genocide and/or failing to punish persons who committed genocide (and/or by conspiring to commit genocide), but does NOT hold Myanmar responsible for committing genocide itself. This is the Bosnia v. Serbia (2007) template: genocidal acts established, but commission not attributed / intent to destroy not established against the state. Resolution source: the Court's judgment and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.
45%probability - closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the ICJ reject The Gambia's genocide claims against Myanmar outright, finding no breach of the Genocide Convention?
YES if the 19 November 2026 judgment rejects The Gambia's claims — i.e. the Court finds that genocidal intent is not the only reasonable inference from the 2016–2017 conduct (following Croatia v. Serbia, 2015), so Myanmar is not held responsible for committing, conspiring to commit, failing to prevent or failing to punish genocide. A separate finding that Myanmar failed to comply with the January 2020 provisional measures order does not by itself make this branch NO. Resolution source: the Court's judgment and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.
20%probability
Target
Event
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