Open
/Decision/closes 12 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC

A military working group led by General Alexus Gringevich will discuss ceasefire monitoring and security measures after the war ends.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

A military working group led by General Alexus Gringevich will discuss ceasefire monitoring and security measures after the war ends.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1cf83-18fb-747a-87cd-eea78cbae17d

Open decision

Discussion

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