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/Decision/closes 12 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC

The Kiev authorities plan to build pontoon bridges connecting the right and left banks of the Dnepr in the Ukrainian capital.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC ·no change

Open decision API record

Resolves YES if

The Kiev authorities plan to build pontoon bridges connecting the right and left banks of the Dnepr in the Ukrainian capital.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1cf81-d41e-7add-89a6-c770be29222d

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