Open
/Decision/closes 14 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC

The author promised 10,000 servings of 雞排 and 珍奶 if 台股 does not reach 50,000 points by year-end.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

The author promised 10,000 servings of 雞排 and 珍奶 if 台股 does not reach 50,000 points by year-end.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1d7db-b2e8-77be-aba9-666409e350eb

Open decision

Discussion

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