--- title: "Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for \"discrediting traditional values\") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for \"discrediting traditional values\") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d9f5-bcc1-7440-a274-2200d3ae5615" meta: "og:description": "Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for \"discrediting traditional values\") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for \"discrediting traditional values\") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** / [Decision](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1d99d-3d04-749d-b8fb-97717e5412f0)/closes 18 Nov 2026 14 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC # **Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for "discrediting traditional values") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026?** **85%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC ·no change [**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1d99d-3d04-749d-b8fb-97717e5412f0) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d9f5-bcc1-7440-a274-2200d3ae5615) **Resolves YES if** YES if the State Duma adopts bill No. 1101893-8 in the first reading at a plenary session on or before 18 November 2026 (a dated report of the vote, e.g. Interfax/RIA/Parliamentary Gazette/Duma transcript, counts). NO if the first reading is postponed beyond 18 November 2026, the bill is withdrawn or rejected, or no vote is recorded by then. **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 85% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC**85%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will the first reading of bill No. 1101893-8 slip past 18 November 2026 but still be adopted by the Duma on or before 31 December 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d9f6-5b58-7643-8beb-2453d4ed4a00) YES if no first-reading vote on bill No. 1101893-8 occurs on or before 18 November 2026, but the State Duma does adopt it in the first reading at a later plenary session on or before 31 December 2026 (dated report of the vote).**10%** probability ## **Target** Decision 01a1d99d-3d04-749d-b8fb-97717e5412f0 [**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1d99d-3d04-749d-b8fb-97717e5412f0) ## **Discussion** [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 1 branch ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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