Open
/Decision/closes 10 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC

India will reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers against the U.S. to zero.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

India will reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers against the U.S. to zero.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1bf61-9ed0-70fa-9792-7f04bc358f50

Open decision

Discussion

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