---
title: "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting? — DecisionGateway"
description: "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399"
meta:
  "og:description": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
  "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg"
  "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black"
  "og:image:height": "1024"
  "og:image:width": "1024"
  "og:title": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting? — DecisionGateway"
  "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg"
---

> Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt)

**Open**

/ [Event](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1d95d-30b5-7023-87c4-a6b20dab3bac)/closes 19 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC

# **Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting?**

**85%**probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC ·no change

[**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1d95d-30b5-7023-87c4-a6b20dab3bac) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399)

**Resolves YES if**

Resolves YES if the Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the monetary policy meeting concluding on 18 December 2026, as announced in the BOJ's post-meeting statement (or a dated wire report of that decision) on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z. Resolves NO if the BOJ leaves the policy rate at 1.25% at that meeting, or if the decision is taken at a later meeting.

**Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track)

## **Probability history**

1 recorded point

now 85% · no change

## **What changed**

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

1. 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC**85%**—

   Probability updated.

## **Branches**

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

## **Target**

Event

01a1d95d-30b5-7023-87c4-a6b20dab3bac

[**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1d95d-30b5-7023-87c4-a6b20dab3bac)

## **Discussion**

[Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches

```json
{"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. Read free.","name":"DecisionGateway","url":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/","publisher":{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#identity"}},{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399#webpage","@type":"WebPage","description":"Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence.","name":"Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting? — DecisionGateway","url":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399#breadcrumb"},"isPartOf":{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399"]}]},{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#identity","@type":"Organization","name":"DecisionGateway","url":"https://dgw.tmarket.io"},{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-ee38-7fcf-b305-7e21c7de9399#breadcrumb","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","name":"Home","item":"https://dgw.tmarket.io","position":1},{"@type":"ListItem","name":"Forecasts","item":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts","position":2},{"@type":"ListItem","name":"Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting?","position":3}]}]}
```

## Sitemap

See the full [sitemap](https://dgw.tmarket.io/sitemap.md) for all pages.