Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting?
85%probability
as of 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Resolves YES if the Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the monetary policy meeting concluding on 18 December 2026, as announced in the BOJ's post-meeting statement (or a dated wire report of that decision) on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z. Resolves NO if the BOJ leaves the policy rate at 1.25% at that meeting, or if the decision is taken at a later meeting.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 85% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 85%—
Probability updated.
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