Open
/Event/closes 19 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC

Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the 17–18 December 2026 meeting?

85%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

Resolves YES if the Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at the monetary policy meeting concluding on 18 December 2026, as announced in the BOJ's post-meeting statement (or a dated wire report of that decision) on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z. Resolves NO if the BOJ leaves the policy rate at 1.25% at that meeting, or if the decision is taken at a later meeting.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 85% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 85%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Event

01a1d95d-30b5-7023-87c4-a6b20dab3bac

Open event

Discussion

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