--- title: "Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-c63a-73bc-81d0-33dd79f24832" meta: "og:description": "Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** /Decision/closes 19 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC # **Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?** **15%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC ·no change [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d985-c63a-73bc-81d0-33dd79f24832) **Resolves YES if** Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Klaas Knot (former De Nederlandsche Bank governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date. Branch of [Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026?](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-a29a-7755-962e-521d1a5a737d)(Open) **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 15% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC**15%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - this page closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-c63a-73bc-81d0-33dd79f24832) Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Klaas Knot (former De Nederlandsche Bank governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.**15%** probability - closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-c644-7f16-ac5e-a0c8b231fd7d) Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Pablo Hernández de Cos (currently BIS General Manager, former Bank of Spain governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.**45%** probability ## **Target** Decision — ## **Discussion** [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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