--- title: "Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-a29a-7755-962e-521d1a5a737d" meta: "og:description": "Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** /Decision/closes 19 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC # **Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026?** **60%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC ·no change [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d985-a29a-7755-962e-521d1a5a737d) **Resolves YES if** Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z, the European Council formally appoints a named individual as ECB President to succeed Christine Lagarde (who leaves on 7 February 2027) — evidenced by European Council conclusions, a Council press release, or a dated wire report of the appointment made at the 17–18 December 2026 Brussels summit. Resolves NO if no such appointment has been made by that time (including if leaders agree a candidate politically but defer the formal appointment to 2027, or if the appointment is made after 19 December 2026). **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 60% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC**60%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-c63a-73bc-81d0-33dd79f24832) Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Klaas Knot (former De Nederlandsche Bank governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.**15%** probability - closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d985-c644-7f16-ac5e-a0c8b231fd7d) Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Pablo Hernández de Cos (currently BIS General Manager, former Bank of Spain governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.**45%** probability ## **Target** Decision — ## **Discussion** [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 2 branches ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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