Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 10:06 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z, the European Council formally appoints a named individual as ECB President to succeed Christine Lagarde (who leaves on 7 February 2027) — evidenced by European Council conclusions, a Council press release, or a dated wire report of the appointment made at the 17–18 December 2026 Brussels summit. Resolves NO if no such appointment has been made by that time (including if leaders agree a candidate politically but defer the formal appointment to 2027, or if the appointment is made after 19 December 2026).
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 60% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 60%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?
Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Klaas Knot (former De Nederlandsche Bank governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.
15%probability - closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Pablo Hernández de Cos be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?
Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Pablo Hernández de Cos (currently BIS General Manager, former Bank of Spain governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.
45%probability
- closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?
Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Klaas Knot (former De Nederlandsche Bank governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.
15%probability - closes 19 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Pablo Hernández de Cos be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?
Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Pablo Hernández de Cos (currently BIS General Manager, former Bank of Spain governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.
45%probability
Target
Decision
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