Open
/Decision/closes 10 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 09:30 UTC

The PP will ban social media access for minors under 14 and require parental authorization for those up to 16.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 09:30 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

The PP will ban social media access for minors under 14 and require parental authorization for those up to 16.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1c74d-821d-72bb-9ed7-4e14b9e10131

Open decision

Discussion

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