Open
/Decision/closes 12 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 09:30 UTC

The EU security hub at the Black Sea will have two complementary headquarters in Constanța and in Varna.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 09:30 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

The EU security hub at the Black Sea will have two complementary headquarters in Constanța and in Varna.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1cd96-8484-713a-9354-a7b63e20f2b0

Open decision

Discussion

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