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/Decision/closes 13 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 08:30 UTC

Friedrich Merz (CDU) will only agree to the EU budget for 2028 to 2034 if all member states co-finance Ukraine.

91%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 08:30 UTC ·no change

Open decision API record

Resolves YES if

Friedrich Merz (CDU) will only agree to the EU budget for 2028 to 2034 if all member states co-finance Ukraine.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 91% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 91%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1d549-a970-7db8-9637-f8af481924a2

Open decision

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