DecisionGateway
Open
/Decision/closes 1 Jan 2027 14 Nov 2026, 06:30 UTC

the New Year holidays will last 11 days

94%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:30 UTC ·no change

Open decision API record

Resolves YES if

the New Year holidays will last 11 days

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 94% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 94%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1d164-0d4e-7c2d-97d9-d8b98d60caa6

Open decision

Discussion

0/2000
Back to forecasts 0 branches