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/Decision/closes 1 Jul 2027 14 Nov 2026, 06:11 UTC

The Communist Party of China begins electing 2360 delegates to the 21st congress.

97%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:11 UTC ·no change

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Resolves YES if

The Communist Party of China begins electing 2360 delegates to the 21st congress.

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 97% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 97%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1cdda-c356-7ee7-a45f-f1b2aa1fe7d3

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