--- title: "Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8" meta: "og:description": "Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** /Decision/closes 31 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC # **Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026?** **55%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC ·no change [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8) **Resolves YES if** Yes if the US and Israeli governments publicly announce/finalise a new multi-year security memorandum of understanding on military assistance (the reported five-year, \~$16.5bn FMF framework beginning after the current MOU expires in 2028) on or before 31 December 2026. No if no new MOU is announced by then and the existing 2016 MOU simply runs to its 2028 expiry. **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 55% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC**55%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive Open [**Will no new US-Israel military-aid MOU be announced by 31 December 2026, leaving the 2016 MOU to run to its 2028 expiry?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-2b52-7b47-86b9-e957a686a58f) Yes if no new US-Israel military-aid MOU is publicly announced by 31 December 2026 — negotiations continue into 2027, or the two sides settle only on a narrower arrangement (e.g. NDAA-based co-production provisions) without a signed/announced MOU.**45%** probability ## **Target** Decision — ## **Discussion** [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 1 branch ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. Read free.","name":"DecisionGateway","url":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/","publisher":{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#identity"}},{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8#webpage","@type":"WebPage","description":"Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence.","name":"Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026? — DecisionGateway","url":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8#breadcrumb"},"isPartOf":{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8"]}]},{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#identity","@type":"Organization","name":"DecisionGateway","url":"https://dgw.tmarket.io"},{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8#breadcrumb","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","name":"Home","item":"https://dgw.tmarket.io","position":1},{"@type":"ListItem","name":"Forecasts","item":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts","position":2},{"@type":"ListItem","name":"Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026?","position":3}]}]} ``` ## Sitemap See the full [sitemap](https://dgw.tmarket.io/sitemap.md) for all pages.