---
title: "Will Republican Gabe Firment win Louisiana's 5th Congressional District runoff against Democrat Pat Moore on 12 December 2026? — DecisionGateway"
description: "Will Republican Gabe Firment win Louisiana's 5th Congressional District runoff against Democrat Pat Moore on 12 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
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meta:
  "og:description": "Will Republican Gabe Firment win Louisiana's 5th Congressional District runoff against Democrat Pat Moore on 12 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
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  "og:title": "Will Republican Gabe Firment win Louisiana's 5th Congressional District runoff against Democrat Pat Moore on 12 December 2026? — DecisionGateway"
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**Open**

/ [Event](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1cedb-e3e5-78d5-aa0c-44b93f02404c)/closes 13 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC

# **Will Republican Gabe Firment win Louisiana's 5th Congressional District runoff against Democrat Pat Moore on 12 December 2026?**

**85%**probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change

[**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1cedb-e3e5-78d5-aa0c-44b93f02404c) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d8ad-39de-7630-868b-ff96a1215990)

**Resolves YES if**

Yes if Republican Gabe Firment is certified/elected as the winner of Louisiana's 5th Congressional District in the 12 December 2026 runoff against Democrat Patricia "Pat" Moore. No if Moore wins.

**Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track)

## **Probability history**

1 recorded point

now 85% · no change

## **What changed**

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

1. 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC**85%**—

   Probability updated.

## **Branches**

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

## **Target**

Event

01a1cedb-e3e5-78d5-aa0c-44b93f02404c

[**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1cedb-e3e5-78d5-aa0c-44b93f02404c)

## **Discussion**

[Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches

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