Will Republican Gabe Firment win Louisiana's 5th Congressional District runoff against Democrat Pat Moore on 12 December 2026?
85%probability
as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if Republican Gabe Firment is certified/elected as the winner of Louisiana's 5th Congressional District in the 12 December 2026 runoff against Democrat Patricia "Pat" Moore. No if Moore wins.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 85% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 85%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
No branches — a single binary question.
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