--- title: "Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ad-1005-7d2d-a97d-294274408460" meta: "og:description": "Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** /Event/closes 26 Nov 2026 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC # **Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?** **12%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d8ad-1005-7d2d-a97d-294274408460) **Resolves YES if** Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations. Branch of [Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026?](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ac-e3e4-75f7-9fa2-b3c1c203aca5)(Open) **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 12% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC**12%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - this page closes 26 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ad-1005-7d2d-a97d-294274408460) Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.**12%** probability ## **Target** Event — ## **Discussion** [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?","position":3}]}]} ``` ## Sitemap See the full [sitemap](https://dgw.tmarket.io/sitemap.md) for all pages.