--- title: "Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ac-e3e4-75f7-9fa2-b3c1c203aca5" meta: "og:description": "Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** /Event/closes 26 Nov 2026 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC # **Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026?** **88%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d8ac-e3e4-75f7-9fa2-b3c1c203aca5) **Resolves YES if** Yes if the Alaska Division of Elections' ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November 2026 (or the completed first-choice count, if a candidate clears 50%) leaves Mary Peltola with more votes than incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, and the race is called or certified for Peltola on or before 26 November 2026. No if Sullivan is tabulated/certified as the winner, or if certification is still blocked by litigation on 26 November 2026. **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 88% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC**88%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - closes 26 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d8ad-1005-7d2d-a97d-294274408460) Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.**12%** probability ## **Target** Event — ## **Discussion** [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 1 branch ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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