---
title: "Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026? — DecisionGateway"
description: "Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
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> Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt)

**Open**

/ [Decision](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1d71b-c965-7685-8638-4abe61a92f44)/closes 31 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 00:07 UTC

# **Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?**

**12%**probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:07 UTC ·no change

[**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1d71b-c965-7685-8638-4abe61a92f44) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d761-7d80-7ee8-8d71-3eeb55327734)

**Resolves YES if**

YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.

Branch of [Will the US and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding formally ending hostilities on or before 31 December 2026?](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d761-6269-7883-ab6a-e8d2dcd9bd23)(Open)

**Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track)

## **Probability history**

1 recorded point

now 12% · no change

## **What changed**

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

1. 14 Nov 2026, 00:07 UTC**12%**—

   Probability updated.

## **Branches**

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 Open [**Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d761-7d80-7ee8-8d71-3eeb55327734)

  YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.**12%** probability

## **Target**

Decision

01a1d71b-c965-7685-8638-4abe61a92f44

[**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1d71b-c965-7685-8638-4abe61a92f44)

[Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches

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