---
title: "Will the Knesset swear in a Gadi Eisenkot-led government on or before 20 December 2026? — DecisionGateway"
description: "Will the Knesset swear in a Gadi Eisenkot-led government on or before 20 December 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence."
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**Open**

/ [Decision](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1c28e-3199-7485-abdc-5e0eebb4c54f)/closes 21 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC

# **Will the Knesset swear in a Gadi Eisenkot-led government on or before 20 December 2026?**

**40%**probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC ·no change

[**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1c28e-3199-7485-abdc-5e0eebb4c54f) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d760-dc25-73c9-a3c2-5b2c82bc6c02)

**Resolves YES if**

YES if the Knesset votes confidence in, and swears in, a government headed by Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) on or before 20 December 2026 — including a government formed after a presidential extension of his mandate. NO if by 20 December 2026 Eisenkot has returned the mandate, been replaced by another mandate holder, or no Eisenkot-led government has been sworn in.

**Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track)

## **Probability history**

1 recorded point

now 40% · no change

## **What changed**

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

1. 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC**40%**—

   Probability updated.

## **Branches**

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

## **Target**

Decision

01a1c28e-3199-7485-abdc-5e0eebb4c54f

[**Open decision **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/decisions/01a1c28e-3199-7485-abdc-5e0eebb4c54f)

[Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches

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