--- title: "Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" description: "Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d760-5111-7153-a391-4885b0b8b5ab" meta: "og:description": "Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026? Probability, deadline, branches and resolution evidence." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026? — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) **Open** / [Event](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1cc02-e2eb-7f46-ace3-76368e4515e4)/closes 18 Nov 2026 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC # **Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026?** **28%**probability as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC ·no change [**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1cc02-e2eb-7f46-ace3-76368e4515e4) [**API record **](https://dgw-api.tmarket.io/v1/forecasts/01a1d760-5111-7153-a391-4885b0b8b5ab) **Resolves YES if** YES if no plenum vote installing a new Speaker occurs on or before 18 November 2026, or a vote occurs and Matan Kahana does not win a majority — i.e. Amir Ohana remains Knesset Speaker at the end of 18 November 2026. Branch of [Will the Knesset elect Matan Kahana (Yashar) as Speaker, replacing Likud's Amir Ohana, at the vote scheduled for 17 November 2026?](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d760-31c1-7a0d-b75f-60e60b1243db)(Open) **Model track record** Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 [ record](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts#track) ## **Probability history** 1 recorded point now 28% · no change ## **What changed** Real moves and re-assessments, newest first. 1. 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC**28%**— Probability updated. ## **Branches** Alternatives with their own deadline and condition. mutually exclusive - this page closes 18 Nov 2026 exclusive Open [**Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026?**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts/01a1d760-5111-7153-a391-4885b0b8b5ab) YES if no plenum vote installing a new Speaker occurs on or before 18 November 2026, or a vote occurs and Matan Kahana does not win a majority — i.e. Amir Ohana remains Knesset Speaker at the end of 18 November 2026.**28%** probability ## **Target** Event 01a1cc02-e2eb-7f46-ace3-76368e4515e4 [**Open event **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/events/01a1cc02-e2eb-7f46-ace3-76368e4515e4) [Back to forecasts](https://dgw.tmarket.io/forecasts) 0 branches ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 3,800+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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