Will the Knesset elect Matan Kahana (Yashar) as Speaker, replacing Likud's Amir Ohana, at the vote scheduled for 17 November 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the Knesset plenum holds the scheduled speaker election on 17 November 2026 (or any vote on or before 18 November 2026) and Matan Kahana wins a majority and is installed as Speaker, replacing Amir Ohana. NO if the vote is not held by 18 November, or is held and Kahana fails to win a majority.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 72% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 72%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 18 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026?
YES if no plenum vote installing a new Speaker occurs on or before 18 November 2026, or a vote occurs and Matan Kahana does not win a majority — i.e. Amir Ohana remains Knesset Speaker at the end of 18 November 2026.
28%probability
- closes 18 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026?
YES if no plenum vote installing a new Speaker occurs on or before 18 November 2026, or a vote occurs and Matan Kahana does not win a majority — i.e. Amir Ohana remains Knesset Speaker at the end of 18 November 2026.
28%probability