Will the RBI Monetary Policy Committee raise the repo rate at its 2–4 December 2026 meeting?
88%probability
as of 13 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the RBI Monetary Policy Committee raises the policy repo rate from 5.50% at its 2–4 December 2026 meeting (decision announced 4 December 2026), by any amount. No if the repo rate is left unchanged at 5.50% or cut.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 88% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 88%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
No branches — a single binary question.
Target
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