Open
/Event/closes 18 Dec 2026 12 Nov 2026, 00:09 UTC

Will the European Parliament adopt the relaxed 2035 car/van CO2 targets (87.5% for cars) as its negotiating mandate at the 14–17 December 2026 plenary session?

80%probability

as of 12 Nov 2026, 00:09 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

Yes if the European Parliament, at its 14–17 December 2026 Strasbourg part-session, votes to adopt the ENVI committee's report on the revised CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (the 87.5% 2035 fleet-wide reduction target with a 7.5% low-carbon-steel credit) as Parliament's position / mandate for negotiations with the Council. No if the vote is not held in that part-session, is rejected, or is postponed to a later session.

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 80% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  • 12 Nov 2026, 00:09 UTC

    Probability updated.

    80%

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Event

01a1cce3-787c-73de-a94d-d77abc202b11

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