Will Taiwan's FSC put the VASP management sub-laws (including the stablecoin FX-settlement rule) into force on or before 31 March 2027?
70%probability
as of 11 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission (金管會) formally announces that the 虛擬資產服務商管理辦法 sub-laws under the 虛擬資產服務法 — including the rule treating NTD/foreign-currency stablecoin exchange as bank FX settlement (結匯) — have entered into force (施行) on or before 31 March 2027. NO if by that date the sub-laws remain in pre-announcement/consultation or have been promulgated but not yet in force.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 70% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 18:14 UTC
Probability updated.
70%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
No branches — a single binary question.
Target
Back to forecasts 0 branches