Open
/Decision/closes 31 Dec 2027 11 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC

Will the Australian Government introduce the Australian AI Standards bill — the legislation that would create the new AI safety regulator — into the federal Parliament on or before 31 December 2027?

65%probability

as of 11 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if a bill establishing the Australian AI Standards (including the proposed targeted AI safety regulator with penalty powers) is introduced and read a first time in either chamber of the Australian federal Parliament on or before 31 December 2027, as recorded on the Parliament House bills list or in the explanatory memorandum. Announcements, consultation papers, exposure drafts and committee reports do not count; only introduction of a bill does.

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 65% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  • 11 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC

    Probability updated.

    65%

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

01a1c832-b8f4-7186-bf58-c2c1382f419a

Open decision