Will Paraguay enact a law by 31 March 2027 giving priority/guarantees for restitution of pension-fund deposits (IPS, Caja Fiscal) frozen in Ueno Bank?
as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if Paraguay's Congress passes, and the Executive promulgates, a law that establishes priority or an explicit guarantee/mechanism for restitution of pension-fund deposits (Instituto de Previsión Social, Caja Fiscal and/or other cajas previsionales) frozen in the intervened Ueno Bank, on or before 2027-03-31T23:59:59Z. A presidential statement, a bill introduced but not enacted, or the existing deposit-guarantee (FGD) payout to individual savers does NOT count.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 30% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC
Probability updated.
30%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Mar 2027 OpenWill Paraguay instead handle Ueno Bank pension-fund restitution by decree or administrative action, with no new law enacted by 31 March 2027?
YES if by 2027-03-31T23:59:59Z the Paraguayan executive instead handles pension-fund restitution through an administrative route — e.g. a presidential decree, a BCP resolution, or direct transfers/asset recovery — without a new law enacted by Congress on pension-fund priority.
35%probability
- closes 31 Mar 2027 OpenWill Paraguay instead handle Ueno Bank pension-fund restitution by decree or administrative action, with no new law enacted by 31 March 2027?
YES if by 2027-03-31T23:59:59Z the Paraguayan executive instead handles pension-fund restitution through an administrative route — e.g. a presidential decree, a BCP resolution, or direct transfers/asset recovery — without a new law enacted by Congress on pension-fund priority.
35%probability
Target
Decision
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