Open
/Event/closes 31 Dec 2026 11 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC

Will a further US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral round (beyond the 10–11 November 2026 Abu Dhabi talks) be held on or before 31 December 2026?

55%probability

as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if a further round of US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral talks (a new meeting beyond the 10–11 November 2026 Abu Dhabi round) is actually held, with delegations from all three countries present, on or before 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z. Consultations by phone, bilateral Witkoff/Kushner trips to Moscow or Kyiv alone, or a merely announced-but-not-held meeting do NOT count.

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 55% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  • 11 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC

    Probability updated.

    55%

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Event

01a1c7a4-fce0-75b6-9f64-cea8653c2369

Open event