Will any of the 500 PAC-3 MSE interceptors approved for Ukraine on 30 October 2026 actually be delivered to Ukraine on or before 31 December 2027?
10%probability
as of 10 Nov 2026, 18:11 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the US government, Lockheed Martin, or the Ukrainian government confirms that at least one of the 500 PAC-3 MSE interceptors covered by the State Department approval of 30 October 2026 has been delivered to Ukraine on or before 31 December 2027. No if no such delivery is confirmed by that date.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 10% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
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