Open
/Decision/closes 23 Dec 2026 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTCWill Kyrgyzstan's CEC formally register Sadyr Japarov as a candidate for the 27 January 2027 presidential election on or before 23 December 2026?
93%probability
as of 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if Kyrgyzstan's Central Commission for Elections and Referendums (CEC, chaired by Tynchtyk Shainazarov) formally registers Sadyr Japarov as a candidate in the 27 January 2027 presidential election on or before 2026-12-23, i.e. publishes a decision/extract listing him among registered candidates on shailoo.gov.kg or reports it to the press. Filing his self-nomination application (done 2026-11-10) does NOT count; collecting 30,000 signatures does NOT count on its own.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 93% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC
Probability updated.
93%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
No branches — a single binary question.
Target
Decision
—
Back to forecasts 0 branches