Open
/Decision/closes 23 Dec 2026 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC

Will Kyrgyzstan's CEC formally register Sadyr Japarov as a candidate for the 27 January 2027 presidential election on or before 23 December 2026?

93%probability

as of 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

Yes if Kyrgyzstan's Central Commission for Elections and Referendums (CEC, chaired by Tynchtyk Shainazarov) formally registers Sadyr Japarov as a candidate in the 27 January 2027 presidential election on or before 2026-12-23, i.e. publishes a decision/extract listing him among registered candidates on shailoo.gov.kg or reports it to the press. Filing his self-nomination application (done 2026-11-10) does NOT count; collecting 30,000 signatures does NOT count on its own.

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 93% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  • 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC

    Probability updated.

    93%

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Decision

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