Will the EU Council adopt new Iran-related restrictive measures (asset freezes and/or travel bans on named persons or entities) in response to the October 2026 cyberattacks on European retail refrigeration systems on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if, on or before 2026-12-31, the Council of the EU adopts a Council Decision and/or Implementing Regulation adding at least one natural or legal person to an EU Iran sanctions annex (or to the EU cyber-sanctions framework) where the designation is publicly linked to the 11-12 October 2026 attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems / the IRGC-CEC unit 'Shahid Kaveh' (also tracked as CyberAveng3rs). A Council press release announcing the listings, or publication in the Official Journal, counts. A statement of intent, a tasking of the EEAS, or a discussion at the 16 November Foreign Affairs Council without adopted listings does NOT count.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 45% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC
Probability updated.
45%
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Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
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Decision
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