Open
/Event/closes 31 Jan 2027 10 Nov 2026, 06:06 UTC

Will the new EAEU cross-border e-commerce customs regime actually enter into force on 1 January 2027, as the graph's start_date records?

60%probability

as of 10 Nov 2026, 06:06 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

Yes if a dated source (EEC announcement, national customs service, or major outlet) reports that the Protocol amending the EAEU Customs Code on cross-border e-commerce entered into force and the new regime (5% duty, min €1/kg, €200 duty-free threshold, e-commerce operator declaration) applies to imports from 1 January 2027. No if entry into force is postponed past 1 January 2027 or the start date passes without the regime operating.

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 60% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  • 10 Nov 2026, 06:06 UTC

    Probability updated.

    60%

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Event

01a1be78-61f1-7b7e-85a1-ba32f507e674

Open event