Will the new EAEU cross-border e-commerce customs regime actually enter into force on 1 January 2027, as the graph's start_date records?
60%probability
as of 10 Nov 2026, 06:06 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if a dated source (EEC announcement, national customs service, or major outlet) reports that the Protocol amending the EAEU Customs Code on cross-border e-commerce entered into force and the new regime (5% duty, min €1/kg, €200 duty-free threshold, e-commerce operator declaration) applies to imports from 1 January 2027. No if entry into force is postponed past 1 January 2027 or the start date passes without the regime operating.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 60% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 06:06 UTC
Probability updated.
60%
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