Will the IAEA inspect one of Iran's bombed enrichment facilities (Natanz, Fordow or Isfahan) on or before 31 March 2027?
30%probability
as of 10 Nov 2026, 03:06 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if, on or before 2027-03-31, a dated statement by the IAEA and/or an Iranian government spokesperson confirms that IAEA inspectors have carried out an inspection at one or more of Iran's bombed enrichment facilities (Natanz, Fordow or Isfahan). NO if no such inspection is confirmed by that date, including the case where talks continue without access being granted.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 30% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 30%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
No branches — a single binary question.
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