Open
/Event/closes 31 Mar 2027 10 Nov 2026, 03:06 UTC

Will the IAEA inspect one of Iran's bombed enrichment facilities (Natanz, Fordow or Isfahan) on or before 31 March 2027?

30%probability

as of 10 Nov 2026, 03:06 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if, on or before 2027-03-31, a dated statement by the IAEA and/or an Iranian government spokesperson confirms that IAEA inspectors have carried out an inspection at one or more of Iran's bombed enrichment facilities (Natanz, Fordow or Isfahan). NO if no such inspection is confirmed by that date, including the case where talks continue without access being granted.

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 30% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 30%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

No branches — a single binary question.

Target

Event

01a1c34a-601c-7c21-8f3b-5589412694dc

Open event