Will the Knesset approve a government headed by Gadi Eisenkot on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 03:05 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, the Knesset votes confidence in a government in which Gadi Eisenkot is prime minister (reported by at least one dated news source or the Knesset/president's office). NO if no such confidence vote occurs by that date, including the case where Eisenkot returns the mandate, the mandate lapses, or another MK is tasked instead.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 40% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 03:05 UTC
Probability updated.
40%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Eisenkot's mandate end without any Knesset confidence vote in a new government on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if by 2026-12-31 Eisenkot has returned the mandate to President Herzog, or the 28+14 day window has lapsed, and no Knesset confidence vote has installed any new government. NO if a new government (Eisenkot-led or otherwise) is approved by that date.
55%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Eisenkot's mandate end without any Knesset confidence vote in a new government on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if by 2026-12-31 Eisenkot has returned the mandate to President Herzog, or the 28+14 day window has lapsed, and no Knesset confidence vote has installed any new government. NO if a new government (Eisenkot-led or otherwise) is approved by that date.
55%probability
Target
Event
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